TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Pacific | Orchard Farm |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.1 | 33.5 |
| PA / GAME | 29.0 | 20.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.0 | +14.9 |
| SOS | +10.7 | -4.7 |
| POWER | -10.3 | +13.2 |
ORCHARD FARM WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Orchard Farm finished the job, as Pacific and Orchard Farm finished 20-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-34 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 13.7-point projection. That produced a 8.3-point margin error, with score errors of 0.1 for Pacific and 8.4 for Orchard Farm.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ORCHARD FARM
MOFO leans toward Orchard Farm because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.7-point margin, with Orchard Farm carrying a 86% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Orchard Farm enters at 33.5 points per game compared with 24.1 for Pacific. Orchard Farm also allows 8.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.7 for Orchard Farm and +10.7 for Pacific. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Orchard Farm owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pacific has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.