TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Troy Buchanan | O'Fallon (Ill.) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 36.6 | 24.2 |
| PA / GAME | 28.1 | 29.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +7.2 | -9.6 |
| SOS | -1.1 | +4.3 |
| POWER | +6.8 | -8.1 |
TROY BUCHANAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Troy Buchanan finished the job, as Troy Buchanan and O'Fallon (Ill.) finished 21-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 34-25 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 9.8-point projection. That produced a 11.2-point margin error, with score errors of 13.4 for Troy Buchanan and 24.6 for O'Fallon (Ill.).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TROY BUCHANAN
MOFO leans toward Troy Buchanan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.8-point margin, with Troy Buchanan carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Troy Buchanan enters at 36.6 points per game compared with 24.2 for O'Fallon (Ill.). Troy Buchanan also allows 1.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.1 for Troy Buchanan and +4.3 for O'Fallon (Ill.). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Troy Buchanan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02O'Fallon (Ill.) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.