TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lindbergh | Oakville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.4 | 24.5 |
| PA / GAME | 28.2 | 23.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.3 | -7.9 |
| SOS | +5.6 | +7.3 |
| POWER | -6.4 | -5.4 |
OAKVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Oakville finished the job, as Lindbergh and Oakville finished 7-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-26 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 2.9-point projection. That produced a 4.1-point margin error, with score errors of 16.6 for Lindbergh and 12.5 for Oakville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD OAKVILLE
MOFO leans toward Oakville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.9-point margin, with Oakville carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Oakville enters at 24.5 points per game compared with 24.4 for Lindbergh. Oakville also allows 5.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.3 for Oakville and +5.6 for Lindbergh. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Oakville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Oakville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.