TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Knob Noster with Leeton | Oak Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.9 | 19.5 |
| PA / GAME | 33.6 | 26.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -35.0 | -16.2 |
| SOS | +25.9 | +8.5 |
| POWER | -25.9 | -13.2 |
OAK GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Oak Grove finished the job, as Knob Noster with Leeton and Oak Grove finished 0-51. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-28 final.
The actual margin was 51 points versus MOFO's 5.7-point projection. That produced a 45.3-point margin error, with score errors of 21.9 for Knob Noster with Leeton and 23.3 for Oak Grove.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD OAK GROVE
MOFO leans toward Oak Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.7-point margin, with Oak Grove carrying a 68% win probability.
Knob Noster with Leeton actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Oak Grove also allows 7.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.5 for Oak Grove and +25.9 for Knob Noster with Leeton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Knob Noster with Leeton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Knob Noster with Leeton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.