TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fox | Northwest (Cedar Hill) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.4 | 30.4 |
| PA / GAME | 26.8 | 22.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +13.2 | +11.0 |
| SOS | -9.1 | -7.3 |
| POWER | +10.0 | +8.5 |
NORTHWEST (CEDAR HILL) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Northwest (Cedar Hill) finished the job, as Fox and Northwest (Cedar Hill) finished 7-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-28 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 2.3-point projection. That produced a 17.7-point margin error, with score errors of 19.2 for Fox and 1.5 for Northwest (Cedar Hill).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTHWEST (CEDAR HILL)
MOFO leans toward Northwest (Cedar Hill) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.3-point margin, with Northwest (Cedar Hill) carrying a 58% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Northwest (Cedar Hill) enters at 30.4 points per game compared with 29.4 for Fox. Northwest (Cedar Hill) also allows 4.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.3 for Northwest (Cedar Hill) and -9.1 for Fox. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Northwest (Cedar Hill) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Northwest (Cedar Hill) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.