TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Macon | North Callaway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 23.6 | 34.4 |
| PA / GAME | 24.5 | 20.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.0 | +21.5 |
| SOS | +5.6 | -11.0 |
| POWER | -6.0 | +17.7 |
MACON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Macon finished the job, as Macon and North Callaway finished 35-28. MOFO's pick of North Callaway missed; the model had projected a 20-32 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 11.9-point projection. That produced a 18.9-point margin error, with score errors of 15.1 for Macon and 3.8 for North Callaway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTH CALLAWAY
MOFO leans toward North Callaway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.9-point margin, with North Callaway carrying a 83% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: North Callaway enters at 34.4 points per game compared with 23.6 for Macon. North Callaway also allows 3.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -11.0 for North Callaway and +5.6 for Macon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01North Callaway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Macon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.