TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | California | Montgomery County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 18.0 | 30.0 |
| PA / GAME | 34.6 | 18.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -27.6 | +23.5 |
| SOS | +15.6 | -13.9 |
| POWER | -22.2 | +18.7 |
CALIFORNIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
California finished the job, as California and Montgomery County finished 33-6. MOFO's pick of Montgomery County missed; the model had projected a 14-36 final.
The actual margin was 27 points versus MOFO's 21.9-point projection. That produced a 48.9-point margin error, with score errors of 18.6 for California and 30.3 for Montgomery County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MONTGOMERY COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Montgomery County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 40.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 21.9-point margin, with Montgomery County carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Montgomery County enters at 30.0 points per game compared with 18.0 for California. Montgomery County also allows 15.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.9 for Montgomery County and +15.6 for California. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Montgomery County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02California has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 40.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.