TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mt. Vernon | Monett |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.8 | 31.9 |
| PA / GAME | 25.8 | 34.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.7 | -15.2 |
| SOS | +2.3 | +13.5 |
| POWER | -0.9 | -10.4 |
MONETT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Monett finished the job, as Mt. Vernon and Monett finished 27-32. MOFO's pick of Mt. Vernon missed; the model had projected a 30-28 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 2.3-point projection. That produced a 7.3-point margin error, with score errors of 3.3 for Mt. Vernon and 4.0 for Monett.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MT. VERNON
MOFO leans toward Mt. Vernon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.3-point margin, with Mt. Vernon carrying a 58% win probability.
Monett actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Mt. Vernon also allows 8.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.3 for Mt. Vernon and +13.5 for Monett. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Monett owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Monett has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.