TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Osage | Moberly |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.9 | 29.3 |
| PA / GAME | 26.6 | 21.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.7 | +20.7 |
| SOS | +14.4 | -13.8 |
| POWER | -9.7 | +15.9 |
MOBERLY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Moberly finished the job, as Osage and Moberly finished 21-55. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-30 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 9.6-point projection. That produced a 24.4-point margin error, with score errors of 0.3 for Osage and 24.7 for Moberly.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOBERLY
MOFO leans toward Moberly because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 25.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.6-point margin, with Moberly carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Moberly enters at 29.3 points per game compared with 24.9 for Osage. Moberly also allows 5.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.8 for Moberly and +14.4 for Osage. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Moberly owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Osage has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 25.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.