TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Liberty (Mountain View) | Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 34.3 | 35.4 |
| PA / GAME | 18.8 | 20.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +26.1 | +20.6 |
| SOS | -14.7 | -16.4 |
| POWER | +21.0 | +14.9 |
LIBERTY (MOUNTAIN VIEW) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Liberty (Mountain View) finished the job, as Liberty (Mountain View) and Miller finished 14-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-26 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 1.8-point projection. That produced a 6.2-point margin error, with score errors of 14.2 for Liberty (Mountain View) and 20.4 for Miller.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERTY (MOUNTAIN VIEW)
MOFO leans toward Liberty (Mountain View) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.8-point margin, with Liberty (Mountain View) carrying a 56% win probability.
Miller actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Liberty (Mountain View) also allows 1.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.7 for Liberty (Mountain View) and -16.4 for Miller. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Miller owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Liberty (Mountain View) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.