TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Rich Hill | Midway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.4 | 32.0 |
| PA / GAME | 34.7 | 25.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.3 | +16.8 |
| SOS | -1.5 | -13.0 |
| POWER | -11.9 | +12.3 |
MIDWAY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Midway finished the job, as Rich Hill and Midway finished 0-38. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-36 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 15.5-point projection. That produced a 22.5-point margin error, with score errors of 20.3 for Rich Hill and 2.2 for Midway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MIDWAY
MOFO leans toward Midway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 24.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 15.5-point margin, with Midway carrying a 89% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Midway enters at 32.0 points per game compared with 20.4 for Rich Hill. Midway also allows 9.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.0 for Midway and -1.5 for Rich Hill. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Midway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rich Hill has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 24.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.