TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Putnam County | Mid-Buchanan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.7 | 38.2 |
| PA / GAME | 18.2 | 19.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.6 | +28.3 |
| SOS | +1.4 | -14.6 |
| POWER | +6.1 | +23.2 |
MID-BUCHANAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mid-Buchanan finished the job, as Putnam County and Mid-Buchanan finished 14-56. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-30 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 7.5-point projection. That produced a 34.5-point margin error, with score errors of 8.3 for Putnam County and 26.2 for Mid-Buchanan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MID-BUCHANAN
MOFO leans toward Mid-Buchanan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.5-point margin, with Mid-Buchanan carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mid-Buchanan enters at 38.2 points per game compared with 28.7 for Putnam County. Putnam County's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.6 for Mid-Buchanan and +1.4 for Putnam County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Mid-Buchanan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Putnam County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.