TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fulton | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.4 | 22.7 |
| PA / GAME | 33.1 | 26.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -24.8 | -13.1 |
| SOS | +11.7 | +11.0 |
| POWER | -20.7 | -9.2 |
MEXICO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mexico finished the job, as Fulton and Mexico finished 19-26. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-29 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 7.3-point projection. That produced a 0.3-point margin error, with score errors of 2.8 for Fulton and 3.2 for Mexico.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MEXICO
MOFO leans toward Mexico because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.3-point margin, with Mexico carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mexico enters at 22.7 points per game compared with 19.4 for Fulton. Mexico also allows 6.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +11.0 for Mexico and +11.7 for Fulton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Mexico owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fulton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.