TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Pius X (Festus) | Mehlville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.5 | 19.2 |
| PA / GAME | 26.3 | 33.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.1 | -24.3 |
| SOS | +7.9 | +9.3 |
| POWER | -4.3 | -21.0 |
ST. PIUS X (FESTUS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Pius X (Festus) finished the job, as St. Pius X (Festus) and Mehlville finished 61-8. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-21 final.
The actual margin was 53 points versus MOFO's 11.5-point projection. That produced a 41.5-point margin error, with score errors of 28.6 for St. Pius X (Festus) and 13.0 for Mehlville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. PIUS X (FESTUS)
MOFO leans toward St. Pius X (Festus) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.5-point margin, with St. Pius X (Festus) carrying a 82% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Pius X (Festus) enters at 27.5 points per game compared with 19.2 for Mehlville. St. Pius X (Festus) also allows 7.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.9 for St. Pius X (Festus) and +9.3 for Mehlville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. Pius X (Festus) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mehlville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.