TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Pleasant Hill | Maryville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 18.9 | 27.9 |
| PA / GAME | 28.5 | 20.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -22.5 | +13.9 |
| SOS | +17.0 | -4.6 |
| POWER | -16.5 | +12.3 |
MARYVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Maryville finished the job, as Pleasant Hill and Maryville finished 20-41. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-31 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 14.3-point projection. That produced a 6.7-point margin error, with score errors of 3.4 for Pleasant Hill and 10.1 for Maryville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MARYVILLE
MOFO leans toward Maryville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 28.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.3-point margin, with Maryville carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Maryville enters at 27.9 points per game compared with 18.9 for Pleasant Hill. Maryville also allows 8.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.6 for Maryville and +17.0 for Pleasant Hill. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Maryville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pleasant Hill has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 28.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.