TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Boonville | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 34.3 | 28.7 |
| PA / GAME | 24.5 | 23.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +23.6 | +15.5 |
| SOS | -14.6 | -13.6 |
| POWER | +18.5 | +10.8 |
BOONVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Boonville finished the job, as Boonville and Marshall finished 62-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-26 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 4.2-point projection. That produced a 37.8-point margin error, with score errors of 32.1 for Boonville and 5.8 for Marshall.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BOONVILLE
MOFO leans toward Boonville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.2-point margin, with Boonville carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Boonville enters at 34.3 points per game compared with 28.7 for Marshall. Marshall's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.6 for Boonville and -13.6 for Marshall. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Boonville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marshall has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.