TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Monroe City | Mark Twain |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.6 | 20.5 |
| PA / GAME | 21.8 | 29.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +1.4 | -3.2 |
| SOS | +7.4 | -6.0 |
| POWER | +4.0 | -5.4 |
MONROE CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Monroe City finished the job, as Monroe City and Mark Twain finished 48-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-20 final.
The actual margin was 48 points versus MOFO's 10.9-point projection. That produced a 37.1-point margin error, with score errors of 17.3 for Monroe City and 19.9 for Mark Twain.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MONROE CITY
MOFO leans toward Monroe City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.9-point margin, with Monroe City carrying a 81% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Monroe City enters at 29.6 points per game compared with 20.5 for Mark Twain. Monroe City also allows 7.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.4 for Monroe City and -6.0 for Mark Twain. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Monroe City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Monroe City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.