TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Forsyth | Marionville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.2 | 28.0 |
| PA / GAME | 25.4 | 19.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.6 | +5.8 |
| SOS | +1.3 | +2.9 |
| POWER | +1.0 | +6.8 |
MARIONVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Marionville finished the job, as Forsyth and Marionville finished 26-30. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-27 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 4.5-point projection. That produced a 0.5-point margin error, with score errors of 3.1 for Forsyth and 2.7 for Marionville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MARIONVILLE
MOFO leans toward Marionville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.5-point margin, with Marionville carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Marionville enters at 28.0 points per game compared with 27.2 for Forsyth. Marionville also allows 5.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.9 for Marionville and +1.3 for Forsyth. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Marionville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marionville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.