TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hayti | Madison (Ill.) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 26.0 | 22.8 |
| PA / GAME | 32.7 | 34.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.1 | -16.9 |
| SOS | +14.9 | +0.8 |
| POWER | -12.9 | -16.6 |
HAYTI WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hayti finished the job, as Hayti and Madison (Ill.) finished 56-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-27 final.
The actual margin was 56 points versus MOFO's 3.9-point projection. That produced a 52.1-point margin error, with score errors of 25.0 for Hayti and 27.1 for Madison (Ill.).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HAYTI
MOFO leans toward Hayti because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.9-point margin, with Hayti carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hayti enters at 26.0 points per game compared with 22.8 for Madison (Ill.). Hayti also allows 2.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +14.9 for Hayti and +0.8 for Madison (Ill.). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Hayti owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hayti has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.