TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Archie | Lockwood |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 45.1 | 48.5 |
| PA / GAME | 21.4 | 27.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +29.0 | +24.4 |
| SOS | -12.5 | -11.2 |
| POWER | +24.6 | +20.5 |
LOCKWOOD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lockwood finished the job, as Archie and Lockwood finished 40-79. MOFO's pick of Archie missed; the model had projected a 37-35 final.
The actual margin was 39 points versus MOFO's 2.1-point projection. That produced a 41.1-point margin error, with score errors of 3.4 for Archie and 44.5 for Lockwood.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ARCHIE
MOFO leans toward Archie because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.1-point margin, with Archie carrying a 57% win probability.
Lockwood actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Archie also allows 5.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -12.5 for Archie and -11.2 for Lockwood. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Lockwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lockwood has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.