TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lafayette (Wildwood) | Liberty (Wentzville) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 33.9 | 25.7 |
| PA / GAME | 21.5 | 21.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +12.7 | -0.0 |
| SOS | -4.4 | +5.1 |
| POWER | +11.1 | +1.8 |
LAFAYETTE (WILDWOOD) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lafayette (Wildwood) finished the job, as Lafayette (Wildwood) and Liberty (Wentzville) finished 27-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-23 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 5.6-point projection. That produced a 1.4-point margin error, with score errors of 1.4 for Lafayette (Wildwood) and 2.8 for Liberty (Wentzville).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LAFAYETTE (WILDWOOD)
MOFO leans toward Lafayette (Wildwood) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.6-point margin, with Lafayette (Wildwood) carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lafayette (Wildwood) enters at 33.9 points per game compared with 25.7 for Liberty (Wentzville). Liberty (Wentzville)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.4 for Lafayette (Wildwood) and +5.1 for Liberty (Wentzville). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Lafayette (Wildwood) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Liberty (Wentzville) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.