TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Jasper | Liberal |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.2 | 32.4 |
| PA / GAME | 39.2 | 38.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -24.0 | -10.8 |
| SOS | +13.4 | +5.5 |
| POWER | -19.3 | -8.9 |
LIBERAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Liberal finished the job, as Jasper and Liberal finished 12-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-37 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 6.6-point projection. That produced a 9.4-point margin error, with score errors of 18.2 for Jasper and 8.8 for Liberal.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERAL
MOFO leans toward Liberal because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.6-point margin, with Liberal carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Liberal enters at 32.4 points per game compared with 24.2 for Jasper. Liberal also allows 1.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.5 for Liberal and +13.4 for Jasper. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Liberal owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Jasper has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.