TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Plattsburg | Lexington |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 23.4 | 17.6 |
| PA / GAME | 34.5 | 31.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -5.2 | -20.2 |
| SOS | -5.3 | +9.8 |
| POWER | -7.1 | -16.8 |
PLATTSBURG WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Plattsburg finished the job, as Plattsburg and Lexington finished 26-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-25 final.
The actual margin was 12 points versus MOFO's 3.1-point projection. That produced a 8.9-point margin error, with score errors of 2.4 for Plattsburg and 11.3 for Lexington.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PLATTSBURG
MOFO leans toward Plattsburg because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.1-point margin, with Plattsburg carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Plattsburg enters at 23.4 points per game compared with 17.6 for Lexington. Lexington's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.3 for Plattsburg and +9.8 for Lexington. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Plattsburg owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lexington has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.