TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Seneca | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 37.2 | 31.6 |
| PA / GAME | 20.2 | 22.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +30.4 | +23.8 |
| SOS | -13.6 | -11.9 |
| POWER | +25.7 | +19.6 |
LAMAR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lamar finished the job, as Seneca and Lamar finished 12-20. MOFO's pick of Seneca missed; the model had projected a 30-25 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 5.0-point projection. That produced a 13.0-point margin error, with score errors of 18.2 for Seneca and 5.3 for Lamar.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SENECA
MOFO leans toward Seneca because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.0-point margin, with Seneca carrying a 66% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Seneca enters at 37.2 points per game compared with 31.6 for Lamar. Seneca also allows 1.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.6 for Seneca and -11.9 for Lamar. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Seneca owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lamar has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.