TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Chillicothe | Kirksville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.3 | 18.9 |
| PA / GAME | 21.3 | 23.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.5 | -10.8 |
| SOS | -3.0 | +9.2 |
| POWER | +2.5 | -7.5 |
CHILLICOTHE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Chillicothe finished the job, as Chillicothe and Kirksville finished 24-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-19 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 4.5-point projection. That produced a 1.5-point margin error, with score errors of 0.2 for Chillicothe and 1.8 for Kirksville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CHILLICOTHE
MOFO leans toward Chillicothe because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.5-point margin, with Chillicothe carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Chillicothe enters at 22.3 points per game compared with 18.9 for Kirksville. Chillicothe also allows 2.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.0 for Chillicothe and +9.2 for Kirksville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Chillicothe owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kirksville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.