TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Grain Valley | Kearney |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 39.0 | 35.1 |
| PA / GAME | 22.5 | 15.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +26.7 | +30.3 |
| SOS | -13.6 | -13.3 |
| POWER | +21.9 | +25.7 |
KEARNEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kearney finished the job, as Grain Valley and Kearney finished 2-49. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-29 final.
The actual margin was 47 points versus MOFO's 2.3-point projection. That produced a 44.7-point margin error, with score errors of 24.9 for Grain Valley and 19.8 for Kearney.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KEARNEY
MOFO leans toward Kearney because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.3-point margin, with Kearney carrying a 58% win probability.
Grain Valley actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Kearney also allows 6.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.3 for Kearney and -13.6 for Grain Valley. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Grain Valley owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kearney has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.