TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Nixa | Joplin |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 36.6 | 25.2 |
| PA / GAME | 20.5 | 23.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +26.2 | +2.8 |
| SOS | -12.0 | -0.2 |
| POWER | +22.0 | +2.7 |
NIXA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Nixa finished the job, as Nixa and Joplin finished 30-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-21 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 11.0-point projection. That produced a 8.0-point margin error, with score errors of 2.0 for Nixa and 6.0 for Joplin.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NIXA
MOFO leans toward Nixa because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 19.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.0-point margin, with Nixa carrying a 81% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Nixa enters at 36.6 points per game compared with 25.2 for Joplin. Nixa also allows 3.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -12.0 for Nixa and -0.2 for Joplin. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Nixa owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Joplin has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 19.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.