TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ritenour | Jennings |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 27.3 | 28.9 |
| PA / GAME | 30.4 | 18.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -15.8 | +7.4 |
| SOS | +12.1 | -8.4 |
| POWER | -11.5 | +4.5 |
RITENOUR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ritenour finished the job, as Ritenour and Jennings finished 35-0. MOFO's pick of Jennings missed; the model had projected a 22-31 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 9.3-point projection. That produced a 44.3-point margin error, with score errors of 13.3 for Ritenour and 31.0 for Jennings.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JENNINGS
MOFO leans toward Jennings because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.3-point margin, with Jennings carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Jennings enters at 28.9 points per game compared with 27.3 for Ritenour. Jennings also allows 11.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.4 for Jennings and +12.1 for Ritenour. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Jennings owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ritenour has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.