TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Camdenton | Jefferson City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.4 | 26.7 |
| PA / GAME | 34.2 | 26.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -0.6 | +5.8 |
| SOS | -3.1 | -5.7 |
| POWER | -1.7 | +3.8 |
CAMDENTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Camdenton finished the job, as Camdenton and Jefferson City finished 61-34. MOFO's pick of Jefferson City missed; the model had projected a 28-31 final.
The actual margin was 27 points versus MOFO's 3.4-point projection. That produced a 30.4-point margin error, with score errors of 33.3 for Camdenton and 3.0 for Jefferson City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JEFFERSON CITY
MOFO leans toward Jefferson City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.4-point margin, with Jefferson City carrying a 61% win probability.
Camdenton actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Jefferson City also allows 8.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.7 for Jefferson City and -3.1 for Camdenton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Camdenton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Camdenton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.