TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ft. Zumwalt South | Holt |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.8 | 26.2 |
| PA / GAME | 24.7 | 28.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.8 | -9.2 |
| SOS | +2.6 | +6.7 |
| POWER | -8.9 | -6.8 |
HOLT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Holt finished the job, as Ft. Zumwalt South and Holt finished 26-56. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-26 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 2.1-point projection. That produced a 27.9-point margin error, with score errors of 2.3 for Ft. Zumwalt South and 30.2 for Holt.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HOLT
MOFO leans toward Holt because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.1-point margin, with Holt carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Holt enters at 26.2 points per game compared with 19.8 for Ft. Zumwalt South. Ft. Zumwalt South's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +6.7 for Holt and +2.6 for Ft. Zumwalt South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Holt owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Holt has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.