TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Sarcoxie | Hollister |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 26.7 | 27.6 |
| PA / GAME | 21.1 | 30.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +19.4 | -7.2 |
| SOS | -15.4 | +3.7 |
| POWER | +14.0 | -5.9 |
SARCOXIE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sarcoxie finished the job, as Sarcoxie and Hollister finished 43-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-22 final.
The actual margin was 43 points versus MOFO's 7.9-point projection. That produced a 35.1-point margin error, with score errors of 12.6 for Sarcoxie and 22.5 for Hollister.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SARCOXIE
MOFO leans toward Sarcoxie because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 19.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.9-point margin, with Sarcoxie carrying a 74% win probability.
Hollister actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Sarcoxie also allows 9.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.4 for Sarcoxie and +3.7 for Hollister. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Hollister owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hollister has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 19.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.