TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Helias Catholic | Hickman |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 34.3 | 34.5 |
| PA / GAME | 23.0 | 22.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.3 | +23.5 |
| SOS | -4.8 | -15.3 |
| POWER | +13.6 | +18.1 |
HELIAS CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Helias Catholic finished the job, as Helias Catholic and Hickman finished 31-13. MOFO's pick of Hickman missed; the model had projected a 28-29 final.
The actual margin was 18 points versus MOFO's 0.9-point projection. That produced a 18.9-point margin error, with score errors of 2.8 for Helias Catholic and 16.1 for Hickman.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HICKMAN
MOFO leans toward Hickman because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.9-point margin, with Hickman carrying a 53% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hickman enters at 34.5 points per game compared with 34.3 for Helias Catholic. Hickman also allows 0.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.3 for Hickman and -4.8 for Helias Catholic. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Hickman owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Helias Catholic has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.