TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | South Callaway | Hermann |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 23.8 | 18.4 |
| PA / GAME | 27.8 | 30.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -15.3 | -24.9 |
| SOS | +11.8 | +11.8 |
| POWER | -11.2 | -20.8 |
SOUTH CALLAWAY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
South Callaway finished the job, as South Callaway and Hermann finished 47-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-22 final.
The actual margin was 47 points versus MOFO's 6.3-point projection. That produced a 40.7-point margin error, with score errors of 18.7 for South Callaway and 22.0 for Hermann.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTH CALLAWAY
MOFO leans toward South Callaway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.3-point margin, with South Callaway carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: South Callaway enters at 23.8 points per game compared with 18.4 for Hermann. South Callaway also allows 2.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +11.8 for South Callaway and +11.8 for Hermann. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01South Callaway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hermann has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.