TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hillsboro | Hazelwood East |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 29.3 | 25.8 |
| PA / GAME | 23.1 | 19.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +17.5 | +3.1 |
| SOS | -14.3 | -1.8 |
| POWER | +12.5 | +2.4 |
HILLSBORO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hillsboro finished the job, as Hillsboro and Hazelwood East finished 28-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-24 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 1.9-point projection. That produced a 26.1-point margin error, with score errors of 2.6 for Hillsboro and 23.6 for Hazelwood East.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HILLSBORO
MOFO leans toward Hillsboro because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.9-point margin, with Hillsboro carrying a 56% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hillsboro enters at 29.3 points per game compared with 25.8 for Hazelwood East. Hazelwood East's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.3 for Hillsboro and -1.8 for Hazelwood East. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Hillsboro owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hazelwood East has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.