TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Francis Howell Central | Hazelwood Central |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 23.0 | 15.4 |
| PA / GAME | 29.4 | 32.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.1 | -30.4 |
| SOS | +6.5 | +14.7 |
| POWER | -11.8 | -25.3 |
FRANCIS HOWELL CENTRAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Francis Howell Central finished the job, as Francis Howell Central and Hazelwood Central finished 20-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-21 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 8.0-point projection. That produced a 5.0-point margin error, with score errors of 9.1 for Francis Howell Central and 14.1 for Hazelwood Central.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FRANCIS HOWELL CENTRAL
MOFO leans toward Francis Howell Central because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.0-point margin, with Francis Howell Central carrying a 74% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Francis Howell Central enters at 23.0 points per game compared with 15.4 for Hazelwood Central. Francis Howell Central also allows 3.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +6.5 for Francis Howell Central and +14.7 for Hazelwood Central. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Francis Howell Central owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hazelwood Central has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.