TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Thayer | Gravette (AR) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 35.9 | 26.4 |
| PA / GAME | 21.5 | 26.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +19.0 | +0.0 |
| SOS | -8.6 | +0.0 |
| POWER | +15.9 | +0.0 |
GRAVETTE (AR) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Gravette (AR) finished the job, as Thayer and Gravette (AR) finished 8-45. MOFO's pick of Thayer missed; the model had projected a 33-22 final.
The actual margin was 37 points versus MOFO's 10.4-point projection. That produced a 47.4-point margin error, with score errors of 24.7 for Thayer and 22.6 for Gravette (AR).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD THAYER
MOFO leans toward Thayer because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.4-point margin, with Thayer carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Thayer enters at 35.9 points per game compared with 26.4 for Gravette (AR). Thayer also allows 4.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.6 for Thayer and +0.0 for Gravette (AR). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.
01Thayer owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Gravette (AR) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.