TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Penney | Gallatin with Tri-County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 22.2 | 26.8 |
| PA / GAME | 24.9 | 22.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -0.7 | +6.2 |
| SOS | -1.0 | -5.3 |
| POWER | -1.1 | +4.3 |
PENNEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Penney finished the job, as Penney and Gallatin with Tri-County finished 20-7. MOFO's pick of Gallatin with Tri-County missed; the model had projected a 22-26 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 4.4-point projection. That produced a 17.4-point margin error, with score errors of 2.0 for Penney and 19.4 for Gallatin with Tri-County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GALLATIN WITH TRI-COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Gallatin with Tri-County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.4-point margin, with Gallatin with Tri-County carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Gallatin with Tri-County enters at 26.8 points per game compared with 22.2 for Penney. Gallatin with Tri-County also allows 2.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.3 for Gallatin with Tri-County and -1.0 for Penney. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Gallatin with Tri-County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Penney has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.