TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Union | Ft. Zumwalt West |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 26.2 | 25.8 |
| PA / GAME | 22.0 | 28.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.2 | -16.4 |
| SOS | -5.2 | +16.2 |
| POWER | +6.4 | -10.8 |
FT. ZUMWALT WEST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ft. Zumwalt West finished the job, as Union and Ft. Zumwalt West finished 23-30. MOFO's pick of Union missed; the model had projected a 29-22 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 6.6-point projection. That produced a 13.6-point margin error, with score errors of 6.0 for Union and 7.6 for Ft. Zumwalt West.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD UNION
MOFO leans toward Union because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.6-point margin, with Union carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Union enters at 26.2 points per game compared with 25.8 for Ft. Zumwalt West. Union also allows 6.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.2 for Union and +16.2 for Ft. Zumwalt West. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Union owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ft. Zumwalt West has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.