FRANCIS HOWELL WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Francis Howell finished the job, as Francis Howell and Ft. Zumwalt North finished 48-20. MOFO's pick of Ft. Zumwalt North missed; the model had projected a 25-27 final.

The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 1.5-point projection. That produced a 29.5-point margin error, with score errors of 22.8 for Francis Howell and 6.7 for Ft. Zumwalt North.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FT. ZUMWALT NORTH

MOFO leans toward Ft. Zumwalt North because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.5-point margin, with Ft. Zumwalt North carrying a 55% win probability.

Francis Howell actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Ft. Zumwalt North also allows 4.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at +9.3 for Ft. Zumwalt North and +2.1 for Francis Howell. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.