TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lutheran St. Charles | Ft. Zumwalt East |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 15.3 | 23.6 |
| PA / GAME | 39.0 | 32.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -30.2 | -17.1 |
| SOS | +15.2 | +11.1 |
| POWER | -24.8 | -13.2 |
FT. ZUMWALT EAST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ft. Zumwalt East finished the job, as Lutheran St. Charles and Ft. Zumwalt East finished 6-49. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-33 final.
The actual margin was 43 points versus MOFO's 10.0-point projection. That produced a 33.0-point margin error, with score errors of 16.5 for Lutheran St. Charles and 16.5 for Ft. Zumwalt East.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FT. ZUMWALT EAST
MOFO leans toward Ft. Zumwalt East because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.0-point margin, with Ft. Zumwalt East carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ft. Zumwalt East enters at 23.6 points per game compared with 15.3 for Lutheran St. Charles. Ft. Zumwalt East also allows 6.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +11.1 for Ft. Zumwalt East and +15.2 for Lutheran St. Charles. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ft. Zumwalt East owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lutheran St. Charles has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.