TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Herculaneum | Fredericktown |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.2 | 17.7 |
| PA / GAME | 21.1 | 28.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +20.3 | -14.5 |
| SOS | -16.1 | +6.9 |
| POWER | +14.7 | -12.1 |
FREDERICKTOWN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Fredericktown finished the job, as Herculaneum and Fredericktown finished 7-30. MOFO's pick of Herculaneum missed; the model had projected a 32-17 final.
The actual margin was 23 points versus MOFO's 15.1-point projection. That produced a 38.1-point margin error, with score errors of 25.0 for Herculaneum and 13.1 for Fredericktown.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HERCULANEUM
MOFO leans toward Herculaneum because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 26.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 15.1-point margin, with Herculaneum carrying a 88% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Herculaneum enters at 30.2 points per game compared with 17.7 for Fredericktown. Herculaneum also allows 7.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -16.1 for Herculaneum and +6.9 for Fredericktown. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Herculaneum owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fredericktown has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 26.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.