TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Trenton | Fayette |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 21.9 | 18.7 |
| PA / GAME | 31.2 | 32.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -20.3 | -25.5 |
| SOS | +9.6 | +14.5 |
| POWER | -16.9 | -20.5 |
FAYETTE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Fayette finished the job, as Trenton and Fayette finished 7-12. MOFO's pick of Trenton missed; the model had projected a 27-25 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 2.7-point projection. That produced a 7.7-point margin error, with score errors of 20.3 for Trenton and 12.6 for Fayette.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TRENTON
MOFO leans toward Trenton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.7-point margin, with Trenton carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Trenton enters at 21.9 points per game compared with 18.7 for Fayette. Trenton also allows 1.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +9.6 for Trenton and +14.5 for Fayette. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Trenton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fayette has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.