TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Clair | Father Tolton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.1 | 31.8 |
| PA / GAME | 23.7 | 21.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -5.0 | +19.0 |
| SOS | +4.5 | -10.9 |
| POWER | -3.4 | +15.2 |
ST. CLAIR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Clair finished the job, as St. Clair and Father Tolton finished 40-26. MOFO's pick of Father Tolton missed; the model had projected a 21-30 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 8.6-point projection. That produced a 22.6-point margin error, with score errors of 19.1 for St. Clair and 3.5 for Father Tolton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FATHER TOLTON
MOFO leans toward Father Tolton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.6-point margin, with Father Tolton carrying a 76% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Father Tolton enters at 31.8 points per game compared with 24.1 for St. Clair. Father Tolton also allows 2.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.9 for Father Tolton and +4.5 for St. Clair. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Father Tolton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Clair has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.