TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Sullivan | Farmington |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.0 | 36.5 |
| PA / GAME | 23.1 | 21.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +17.2 | +26.5 |
| SOS | -13.7 | -12.3 |
| POWER | +12.4 | +22.2 |
FARMINGTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Farmington finished the job, as Sullivan and Farmington finished 0-55. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-31 final.
The actual margin was 55 points versus MOFO's 6.1-point projection. That produced a 48.9-point margin error, with score errors of 24.8 for Sullivan and 24.1 for Farmington.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FARMINGTON
MOFO leans toward Farmington because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.1-point margin, with Farmington carrying a 69% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Farmington enters at 36.5 points per game compared with 30.0 for Sullivan. Farmington also allows 1.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -12.3 for Farmington and -13.7 for Sullivan. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Farmington owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Farmington has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.