TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hillcrest | Fair Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 16.3 | 27.8 |
| PA / GAME | 33.4 | 23.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -17.5 | +7.4 |
| SOS | +0.8 | -4.3 |
| POWER | -17.2 | +5.9 |
FAIR GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Fair Grove finished the job, as Hillcrest and Fair Grove finished 20-52. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-33 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 15.4-point projection. That produced a 16.6-point margin error, with score errors of 2.3 for Hillcrest and 18.9 for Fair Grove.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FAIR GROVE
MOFO leans toward Fair Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 15.4-point margin, with Fair Grove carrying a 89% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Fair Grove enters at 27.8 points per game compared with 16.3 for Hillcrest. Fair Grove also allows 9.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.3 for Fair Grove and +0.8 for Hillcrest. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Fair Grove owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hillcrest has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.