TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hannibal | Eureka |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 31.7 | 32.2 |
| PA / GAME | 24.1 | 25.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.2 | +6.7 |
| SOS | +8.2 | -0.6 |
| POWER | +3.1 | +6.5 |
HANNIBAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hannibal finished the job, as Hannibal and Eureka finished 29-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-28 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 0.1-point projection. That produced a 0.9-point margin error, with score errors of 0.5 for Hannibal and 0.4 for Eureka.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HANNIBAL
MOFO leans toward Hannibal because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.1-point margin, with Hannibal carrying a 50% win probability.
Eureka actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Hannibal also allows 1.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.2 for Hannibal and -0.6 for Eureka. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Eureka owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hannibal has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.