TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ash Grove | El Dorado Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.7 | 20.7 |
| PA / GAME | 23.1 | 27.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.3 | -22.7 |
| SOS | -2.5 | +11.9 |
| POWER | +3.5 | -18.5 |
ASH GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ash Grove finished the job, as Ash Grove and El Dorado Springs finished 38-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-20 final.
The actual margin was 18 points versus MOFO's 10.1-point projection. That produced a 7.9-point margin error, with score errors of 8.2 for Ash Grove and 0.3 for El Dorado Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ASH GROVE
MOFO leans toward Ash Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 22.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.1-point margin, with Ash Grove carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ash Grove enters at 27.7 points per game compared with 20.7 for El Dorado Springs. Ash Grove also allows 4.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.5 for Ash Grove and +11.9 for El Dorado Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ash Grove owns the stronger scoring profile.
02El Dorado Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 22.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.