TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | McDonald County | East Newton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 28.7 | 18.9 |
| PA / GAME | 24.5 | 33.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.4 | -28.0 |
| SOS | -1.3 | +18.0 |
| POWER | +6.0 | -21.7 |
EAST NEWTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
East Newton finished the job, as McDonald County and East Newton finished 27-28. MOFO's pick of McDonald County missed; the model had projected a 34-19 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 14.6-point projection. That produced a 15.6-point margin error, with score errors of 6.7 for McDonald County and 9.0 for East Newton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MCDONALD COUNTY
MOFO leans toward McDonald County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 27.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.6-point margin, with McDonald County carrying a 88% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: McDonald County enters at 28.7 points per game compared with 18.9 for East Newton. McDonald County also allows 8.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.3 for McDonald County and +18.0 for East Newton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01McDonald County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02East Newton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 27.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.