TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | South Harrison | East Buchanan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 25.7 | 29.7 |
| PA / GAME | 25.6 | 28.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -12.1 | +11.7 |
| SOS | +12.4 | -10.7 |
| POWER | -7.7 | +7.9 |
EAST BUCHANAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
East Buchanan finished the job, as South Harrison and East Buchanan finished 16-33. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-29 final.
The actual margin was 17 points versus MOFO's 3.3-point projection. That produced a 13.7-point margin error, with score errors of 9.7 for South Harrison and 4.0 for East Buchanan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD EAST BUCHANAN
MOFO leans toward East Buchanan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.3-point margin, with East Buchanan carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: East Buchanan enters at 29.7 points per game compared with 25.7 for South Harrison. South Harrison's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.7 for East Buchanan and +12.4 for South Harrison. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01East Buchanan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Harrison has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.