TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Cabool | Doniphan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 14.2 | 28.0 |
| PA / GAME | 42.7 | 25.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -32.9 | +10.9 |
| SOS | +14.8 | -15.5 |
| POWER | -27.7 | +5.4 |
CABOOL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Cabool finished the job, as Cabool and Doniphan finished 26-21. MOFO's pick of Doniphan missed; the model had projected a 17-38 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 21.9-point projection. That produced a 26.9-point margin error, with score errors of 9.4 for Cabool and 17.5 for Doniphan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DONIPHAN
MOFO leans toward Doniphan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 33.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 21.9-point margin, with Doniphan carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Doniphan enters at 28.0 points per game compared with 14.2 for Cabool. Doniphan also allows 17.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.5 for Doniphan and +14.8 for Cabool. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Doniphan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Cabool has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 33.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.